But, I found myself reminded of a few notes I have thought about in the past:

[1] Ray Dalio’s powerful post about “archetypical cycle of internal order and disorder.” It is a long read but it points to his framework for the rise and decline of empires.

[2] The description of the internet as a giant machine that simply gives people what they want. That then led me to continue to think about the societal cost of algorithmic feeds and the resulting fracture of newspaper business model resulting in the drive to serve never-ending niches.

[3] And, related, Morgan Housel’s note: “Tell people what they want to hear and you can be wrong indefinitely without penalty” – is a beautiful articulation of a powerful and sometimes sad truth.

Ray concludes his thoughts on two points:

  • You individually, and those who are leading, need to have a realistic understanding of the circumstances you are in, the range of possibilities that exist given these circumstances, and how to make decisions to produce the best possible outcomes given these circumstances.
  • You can have a better future if you put deferred gratification ahead of immediate gratification.    

This actually kept thinking about the fact that you can actually hold and balance two opposite views [the chaos of current realities vs. the success of future prospects] at the same time.

Thank you for the amazing thoughts uncle Ray.

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